And Then There Were Four – Guest post by J. Michael Glick

Suddenly, we have reached the South Carolina primary and the GOP field has drastically dwindled down to four active candidates. Mitt has been the clear front-runner throughout, but Newt has been surging as we approach South Carolina. Rick and Ron are still chugging along at a relatively respectable pace. They both deserve enormous credit given that they still have the support to remain in the race while the rest of the field has evaporated.

This article attempts to take a look at each candidate and to break down what I see as the primary variables for each. Whether you agree with my thoughts or not, your comments are always appreciated.

Mitt Romney:

Mitt Romney is a very successful man. He is a successful politician and a successful capitalist. He is an iconic American businessman. He understands what it takes to run a successful company and has a proven track record. I believe that he has the mindset we need to turn America around and get our economic engine thundering. He does have an enormous amount of wealth and he should be respected for the work he did to acquire that wealth. Such an accumulation of wealth is simply American.

However, there is a line that must be drawn for any wealthy politician. A politician must be able to relate to people in order to shrug off accusations of elitism. Mitt has attempted to do this. And he has failed, miserably. I am sure we have all witnessed the clips of Mitt trying to claim middle class status by saying things like, “I have also feared receiving the pink slip.” His attempts at relating to the average American may have been a workable stunt, until he stumbles over his own bank account. For example, he attempted to make a $10,000 with Rick Perry on the national debate stage.

$10,000? Seriously Mitt?! A $10,000 check would be a Godsend to millions of American families. Such a quip is wildly irresponsible and arrogant. Someone needs to remind Mitt that he is speaking to the American people, not his chums at the country club. Unfortunately, this slip seems to be emblematic of the Romney worldview, as he recently referred to more than $300k in speaking fees over a 12-month period as a “small amount.” Mitt needs to lock it up. This kind of language is going to be dynamite for Obama and his friendly super PACs if Mitt claims the GOP nomination.

Newt Gingrich:

Newt was born and raised in Central PA (bonus points). He was a professional academic before he evolved into the political prince of the south. He is a powerful individual with a very respectable political track record and a sharp intellect. He successfully led a Republican Congress on a tremendous charge to a majority in the 1990’s. He knows Washington as well as anyone. In office, he will know what needs to be done to get things done. With such in depth legislative knowledge, he will know what fights are winnable and exactly how to win them. He has the audacity and know-how to accomplish things where a Washington amateur may be more prone to stumble.

Unfortunately, he seems to have the emotional stability of a teenage girl. Most recently, he could not control his anger after his loss in Iowa. And overall his decade’s worth of bouncing around through various wives and mistresses is abhorrent to any person aspiring for Christian character. Newt Gingrich, please don’t pull a Herman Cain and deny the truth of your exploits until all is slowly and painfully revealed. If I have learned anything about a Presidential race, all of your exploits will be revealed. Admit your mistakes and ask for forgiveness, like a man of honor would do.

Rick Santorum:

Rick Santorum: one of our own! I am personally proud of Rick for making the run and making such a big impact. I never would have guessed that he would outshine the likes of Rick Perry and Michelle Bachman. But here he is, one of the final four. Rick Santorum is man of principle and a true family man. He has a sharp sense of the real dangers that still threaten our nation’s security. He will not be afraid to take necessary action to protect us. Rick is a winner and does not back down from a fight. It can be said that he even encourages a fight, which may be his fatal flaw.

Rick has what it takes to win the White House. But he just takes it too far. I can respect the social views that Rick has, even if I cannot say I agree with him. His logic is sound and is based on principle. But he is far too abrasive in his language to take a campaign all the way to Pennsylvania Avenue. He has alienated far too much of the population with his rhetoric. No candidate will inflame the left more than the nomination of Rick Santorum. He just has too much rhetorical baggage to be a successful candidate and he has shown no sign of toning it down. So, again, I have so much respect for Rick Santorum, but he does not stand a chance against Obama.

Ron Paul:

Ron Paul? The free world exists today because of American military power. Ron Paul wants to essentially eliminate our global military presence. Such a move would leave a power vacuum, which would naturally be filled by the likes of China and Russia. It would embolden the radical regimes of Iran and North Korea. Ron Paul as president would destabilize the global power structure. There is no way to predict or prepare for how his policies would impact the world order. His economic policies are a whole other beast with just as much volatility as his foreign policy.

I must say that I do respect the man. He has thought provoking positions and his message resonates with many Americans. He is a radical alternative to the establishment, which is attractive to many. He will continue to be a powerful voice on the national stage, which will allow us to see the possibilities of political change through a much wider lens.

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GOP Fantasy Team 2012

Competency + Charisma = Victory

By: Lowman S. Henry (reprinted with permission)
Sports fanatics like to fantasize.  There are fantasy teams for baseball and football, and brackets for March Madness at the end of basketball season.  As the presidential election gears up political junkies are handicapping the race and developing fantasy teams of their own.

A straw poll at the recent Pennsylvania Leadership Conference conducted by the web site parevolution.com yielded a surprise win for former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.  Herman Cain, the charismatic former chairman of Godfather’s pizza came in a close second.  Cain is a darling of the conservative movement, so his showing was somewhat expected.

Groundwork for the Pawlenty victory in the straw poll was laid by the event’s featured speaker, Dr. Charles Krauthammer, who told the assembled conservative activists that to beat President Obama the GOP doesn’t need a flashy candidate, but rather a somewhat boring candidate whom the voters will view as competent and capable of leading the nation during increasingly challenging times.

Dr. Krauthammer didn’t mention Pawlenty by name, but the politically astute crowd got the message.  The Fox News analyst may or may not have swayed the vote, but he likely reinforced perceptions of Pawlenty as quietly competent while allaying concerns over his ability to stack up against the flamboyant oratory of Barack Obama in the General Election campaign.

Although Republicans and conservative activists generally view President Obama as beatable in 2012, the fantasy candidate game tends to focus on reasons why each of the potential candidates cannot win.  Mitt Romney has the millstone of Romneycare hung around his neck. Newt Gingrich is the smartest man in the country, but will social conservatives overlook his personal transgressions?  Sarah Palin is polarizing. Rick Santorum is too socially conservative; ditto Mike Huckabee.

That brings us to Governor Pawlenty. The main rap against him is that he initially supported a state version of cap and trade, a position from which he quickly retreated. Aside from that the Minnesotan appears to have few negatives and incites no visceral negative reactions from activists and voters. He is, in many ways, the least objectionable candidate.

But, Pawlenty also brings a host of positives to the table.  A former two-term governor of a major state, he has proven ability to govern.  Obama’s inexperience at governing has undermined his presidency, leading to his party’s massive repudiation at the polls last November. There appear to be no major skeletons in his closet making Pawlenty acceptable to both social and economic conservatives.  He is not viewed as a hard Right candidate, which will allow him to appeal to the independent voters who have soured on Obama.  And, he comes from the upper mid-west, a region that with a bit of nudging could end up in the Republican electoral column in 2012.

By most accounts Pawlenty was on John McCain’s short list in 2008. But losing that to Sara Palin may be for him the equivalent of Senator John Kennedy’s failure to snag the 1956 vice presidential nomination to run with Adali Stevenson. Stevenson chose Senator Estes Kefauver of Tennessee, who was never heard of again.  Kennedy rebounded to become the nominee – and president – in 1960.

As for that “a bit boring” problem, that can be cured with the running mate pick.  Pawlenty could spice up the race by naming U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida to the second slot.  Rubio is young, telegenic, exciting, and another fresh face.  Being of Cuban descent, he would appeal to the growing and electorally pivotal Hispanic vote.  It would also ensure Florida’s electoral votes end up in the GOP column. Although he would have just two years of service as a U.S. Senator, that is clearly not an issue the Democrats – and Barack Obama in particular – can exploit.

The selection of Rubio would also say a lot about Pawlenty as a leader. It would show he is confident enough in his own abilities to pick a running mate with more charisma.  It would show he was politically astute enough to select someone who could bring electoral votes to the ticket.  And he would demonstrate he would do whatever was necessary to win.

A Pawlenty-Rubio ticket would have it all: gravitas, proven experience, youth, excitement, appeal to Hispanics and independents, competitiveness in key electoral regions, and acceptance by the party’s conservative base. And so, my entry into the 2012 Presidential fantasy sweepstakes is Pawlenty-Rubio.  I am also predicting the Phillies will win the World Series and the Steelers will avenge their Super Bowl loss.

(Lowman S. Henry is Chairman & CEO of the Lincoln Institute and host of the weekly Lincoln Radio Journal. His email address is lhenry@lincolninstitute.org.)

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Tim Pawlenty

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Rick Santorum

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In case you missed it President Obama has launched his 2012 re-election campaign. This will be the campaign that will go down in history as the “billion dollar” campaign. Here is the launch video with 2 response videos. Ironically the “parody” video put out by the NRSC has more views than the Obama campaign video.

Barack Obama 2012 Campaign Launch Video – “It Begins With Us”

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Parody – President Barack Obama’s First Ad of 2012

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Tim Pawlenty – A New Direction

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“It’s not a crisis, it’s an opportunity” Gov. Pawlenty on FOX News, January 18, 2011

Like Senator Toomey Governor Pawlenty is also calling to not raise the United State’s Debt Limit.

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