What could become a political “perfect storm” appears to be lining up in Pennsylvania’s Gubernatorial Primary Election.

Statewide, chilling rain and increasing voter apathy has meant that voter turnout, which is normally low is primaries, is even lower than average. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette & the Philadelphia Inquirer are both reporting lighter than average voter turnout in their respective areas. The Harrisburg Patriot is reporting that Central Pennsylvania turnout is also extremely low.

Pennsylvania is one of 22 states that have a closed primary, meaning that only registered Democrats and Republicans can vote in this election.

Initially, Republican candidate for Governor, Attorney General Tom Corbett, was viewed as the hands-on favorite to walk away with the primary win. Corbett, the catalyst behind the “Bonusgate” indictments had seen a wave of positive publicity from the high profile case. However charges last month, by attorneys representing “Bonusgate” defendants, that Corbett himself was guilty of campaigning on the public’s dime, brought negative attention at a critical campaign juncture.

State Representative Sam Rohrer, Tom Corbett’s challenger, brings several variables that could change the course of the election with him. Rohrer, who is considered substantially more conservative than Corbett, is strongly aligned with “Tea Party Patriots”. Passionate about their cause, the highly organized and extremely motivated “Tea Party” workers have helped Rohrer to mount a significant grassroots campaign. With the highly respected team of Jeff Coleman and Churchill Strategies running his campaign, Rohrer has proven to be a more formidable opponent than anyone could have predicted.

Polling in the Governor’s race has shown a high portion of undecided voters (varying from a low of 31% to a high of 66%). “Tea Party” members have privately indicated that when polled they were saying they were undecided in the race even though they support Rohrer. Internal polling done in the last 2 weeks by both campaigns has shown Rohrer’s support rising significantly putting him within striking distance of a win would appear to support this scenario.

The Corbett camp, led by GOP Operative and Corbett’s former Chief-of-Staff Brian Nutt, denies accusations that Corbett’s high profile cancellations of several events has anything to do with Rohrer’s polling strength. Campaign spokes persons have said scheduling conflicts were the chief reason for the cancellations, which included a previously scheduled appearance at the Manheim Republican Committee Breakfast earlier this month.

While it is unlikely that Sam Rohrer will win the primary, his candidacy could negatively impact Tom Corbett’s base going into the November election should Rohrer pull substantial numbers.

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