REPUBLICANS:

The race for Governor just took an interesting turn with Republican Congressman Jim Gerlach’s decision to leave the race.  His withdrawal would appear to benefit his Primary challenger, sitting state Attorney General, Tom Corbett.

Gerlach’s campaign had raised just over $1,000,000, not viewed as enough to be considered a viable candidate.  Additionally, he had weak support among State Committee members who heavily favor Corbett.  Campaign Finance Reports will be available at the beginning of February and it’s been widely reported that Corbett will be reporting in excess of $3,000,000. 

Congressman Gerlach has since reentered the race for his 6^th District seat & did not endorse any other candidate for Governor.

Of the 2 remaining candidates for the Republican nomination, Robert Allen Mansfield is the “long shot” with State Representative Sam Rohrer the unknown “dark horse”. 

Insiders have said that Sam Rohrer didn’t expect to get endorsed by the State Committee & has been positioning himself to run unendorsed in the Primary.    

Rohrer became well-known across the state when he launched his campaign to implement property tax relief.  His strong opposition to the federal government’s “real ID” initiative and the firearm registry has made him a popular conservative speaker.  He also has wide support amongst “Tea Party Patriots” who are holding well attended statewide fundraising events for him.  Rohrer has already garnered endorsements from several high profile conservative groups.

The person to watch in this race:  Sam Rohrer.  Many are dismissing his run, but that would be a mistake. 

DEMOCRATS:

With 5 candidates fighting it out, the Democratic side is the “horse race” in the Primary.  

Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, a lawyer/CPA is the clear frontrunner from a money standpoint, boasting a war chest of $8 million, and the endorsement of Blue Dog Congressman Patrick Murphy of Philadelphia.  Onorato’s fundraising prowess is legendary and his connections widespread. 

Sitting Governor Ed Rendell has described Onorato as “probably our next Governor” even though he has not publicly endorsed anyone to succeed him.   Still Onorato, described as the “legacy” candidate, is not well known outside of the Western part of the state and his reign as Allegheny County Executive has not been without controversy.

Auditor General Jack Wagner, also from the Western part of the state, has faced Onorato before—and won.  The highest vote getter in the state last year, scoring more votes than Barack Obama, Wagner is well-liked & respected by both Democrats and Republicans, which would prove invaluable in November.  And it was Dan Onorato that Jack Wagner beat when he won his seat in the State Senate.

Despite Wagner’s universal appeal, in today’s campaign’s, money rules and Wagner is not a strong fundraiser.  In October his war chest sat at a weak $600,000.   

Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel and Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty are extremely well known in their respective areas, with Hoeffel having a distinct advantage.  A long time player in statewide politics Hoeffel has name recognition but so far that hasn’t translated to press coverage or an influx of money.  Without those components he can’t pose a real threat to frontrunners Onorato and Wagner. 

Chris Doherty, is a newcomer to statewide politics, something that will ultimately hurt him.  The popular Mayor is seen as the architect of a major revitalization of the City of Scranton—no small feat.    

The fact that he is the Mayor of a city featured on a hit television show (“The Office”) and that he comes from an area that has produced a high portion of previous Governor’s won’t hurt him, but neither will carry him to victory either. 

No specific information was available about Doherty’s year end fundraising results, although early indicators are that the amount was far below goals set by the campaign.

Tom Knox, self-made millionaire from Philadelphia is the long shot.  The first candidate, from any party, to announce he was running for the Governor’s office, Knox has a history of pumping large amounts of money into his campaigns ($8 million in his unsuccessful run for Mayor of Philadelphia).  His huge media blitz in the Mayor’s race took him from 1% to 25% in the polls and he finished 2nd in the Democratic Primary.    

Expect to see Tom Corbett endorsed, but Sam Rohrer continuing through to the Primary on the Republican side.

On the Democratic side either Dan Onorato or Jack Wagner will be endorsed depending on the message the Democrats want to send to their base.

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